Throughout his campaign, U.S President Donald Trump said that he would withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Agreement, which he deemed as dangerous and imbalanced. Perhaps he and his regime change crew should ask themselves, is it the deal that is dangerous and imbalanced, or pulling out all together? The latter’s possible consequences paint a grim picture, a picture that could unleash something more complicated and terrifying that we have ever seen before.
The reasons for leaving the deal lacked substance. On May 8th, 2018, Donald Trump argued that Iran has continued to build its nuclear weapons program, hence the deal put through by the previous government was ineffective. The President went further, suggesting that Iran’s regional ambitions and its support for terrorists makes it a severe threat to the world.
How does leaving the agreement make the U.S and the world safer? Because geo-politics is so nuanced and multi-faceted, one would think that there is a more complicated answer to this question. However, in this case, it is not complicated at all.
No matter what the President says, the deal constrains Iran’s nuclear program. Donald Trump and his advisors clearly haven’t taken history into consideration. George W. Bush and his team opted to drop the Clinton administrations deal with North Korea in the early 2000s. North Korea responded by withdrawing from the NPT, and dismissed the IAEA inspectors. They are now a thorn in America’s side, conducting nuclear blackmail, because they now have nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Dropping out of the deal also makes the U.S look untrustworthy. The fact that they have broken such an important agreement, an agreement that involves many countries signifies the shifty and temperamental nature of this administration.
“Withdrawing from the deal also demonstrates something that the U.S has been doing for too long. America’s deep friendship with Israel has progressively morphed into an obsession, an obsession that has led them to continuously strike an imbalanced policy in the Middle East.”
The nuclear deal suggested that the U.S were slowly beginning to alter its ways. With that gone, we are back to square one. The U.S have not realised that their one-sided policy for Israel, regardless of its crimes against humanity are giving rise to the view that Israel has occupied the American mind. It is only Israel and Saudi Arabia who are against this. Israel and Saudi Arabia have been dancing in the dark for so long that the world can now see.
The remaining members of the deal seem to be fed up of America’s reckless decision making in order to accommodate Israel. With a new geopolitical landscape, Israel’s clout and excuses are beginning to wane. It is becoming abundantly clear that the rest of the world does not see them as peacemakers. When 61 Palestinian protesters were killed by Israeli forces during protests along the Gaza border against the U.S. embassy opening in Jerusalem, Prime Minster Netanyahu as expected, blamed Hamas for the Gaza massacre. The fact is that we have been hearing this accusation for far too long, and it is fast losing its credibility. It is only a matter of time before the world becomes more forceful with their views on America’s relationship with Israel, which will eventually lead to serious policy changes.
When President Trump withdrew from the deal and imposed sanctions in tandem, other parties reacted swiftly. “France, Germany, and the UK regret the U.S. decision to leave” the Iran nuclear deal, said French President Emmanuel Macron, adding “the nuclear non-proliferation regime is at stake.” The EU issued a statement rebuking Mr. Trump’s decision, telling the US president he does not have the power to unilaterally scrap the international agreement. It is almost as if the President is making a concerted effort to isolate the U.S from the world. It is clear the president has made more enemies than friends with this move. He has deliberately ignored his allies views and convictions. Taking this into consideration, it is hard to believe that this could possibly make America and the rest of the world safer.
That is what the president has opened the door to now. Whether Iran decides to stay in the deal, whether the Europeans can make it work, we’ll see. But the worst case scenario is back to military conflict. By pulling out of a deal that constrains Iran’s nuclear capabilities, placing crippling sanctions on them, and isolating your allies certainly does not bode well. If there was a Plan B, then perhaps we would be more at ease, but there isn’t, and no one has any idea when there will be, or if the U.S are even working on one.
By Ali Humayun Gauhar